The NDP is far behind.
A new Ipsos poll first reported by Global News shows the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck, while the NDP lags far behind.
The Liberals are at 36%, the Conservatives are at 35%, and the NDP are far behind with 20%.
Here are the key regional breakdowns:
B.C. – Liberals 40%, Conservatives 30%, NDP 26%
Alberta – Conservatives 63%, Liberals 18%, NDP 16%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba – Conservatives 47%, Liberals 25%, NDP 20%
Ontario – Liberals 36%, Conservatives 36%, NDP 24%
Quebec – Liberals 45%, Conservatives 22%, Bloc 16%, NDP 13%
Atlantic – Liberals 43%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 17%
The Ipsos poll is quite different from a recent Forum Research poll, which had shown the Conservatives with a 41% – 32% lead over the Liberals.
However, while individual poll numbers jump up and down, the trend in the Ipsos poll is bad news for the Liberals.
Between October, 2015 and December 2017, all Ipsos polls showed Liberal support anywhere from a high of 46% to a low of 38%. Meanwhile, Conservative support was stuck between a high of 32% and a low of 30%.
But in March of 2018, Conservative support jumped to 38%, while Liberal support fell to 31%. And while the numbers switched back in July – with the Liberals getting a perceived boost from trade tensions with the U.S. – the Liberals numbers have fallen again into a near dead heat with the Conservatives.
The trend has been a slow but noticeable loss of support for the Liberals over time, with a slow but noticeable gain for the Conservatives.
As a result, the Conservatives have a real chance at forming government. That said, we know that the establishment media will twist the coverage against the Conservatives, and the next year will feature tons of dirty politics and brutality.